| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | L | North Dakota State | 7-33 | 1483.9 | -51.9 | 1432.0 | 29.0% |
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Eastern Kentucky | 49-7 | 1483.9 | -51.9 | 1432.0 | 92.6% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Ohio | 27-29 | 1432.0 | +45.6 | 1477.6 | 41.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Georgia Southern | 31-27 | 1477.6 | +8.3 | 1485.9 | 49.7% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Middle Tennessee | 23-13 | 1485.9 | +1.7 | 1487.6 | 64.0% |
| 6 | Oct 7 2026 | W | Kennesaw State | 27-26 | 1481.6 | +3.1 | 1484.6 | 63.7% |
| 7 | Oct 14 2026 | W | Florida International | 27-24 | 1484.6 | -2.8 | 1481.8 | 53.9% |