| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | UCF | 10-17 | 1560.3 | +17.3 | 1577.6 | 27.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-24 | 1577.6 | +27.4 | 1605.0 | 61.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 34-41 | 1605.0 | -44.7 | 1560.3 | 73.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Murray State | 45-10 | 1560.3 | +25.9 | 1586.2 | 91.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 25-42 | 1586.2 | -72.0 | 1514.2 | 78.3% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 29-27 | 1513.0 | -22.4 | 1490.6 | 83.1% |
| 9 | Oct 15 2025 | W | Delaware | 38-25 | 1490.6 | +19.3 | 1509.9 | 60.3% |
| 11 | Oct 29 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 24-21 | 1508.5 | -21.2 | 1487.3 | 78.8% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | UTEP | 30-27 | 1487.3 | -1.8 | 1485.5 | 71.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Kennesaw State | 35-26 | 1485.5 | +0.1 | 1485.6 | 54.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Florida International | 21-27 | 1485.6 | -20.3 | 1465.3 | 65.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Western Kentucky | 37-34 | 1465.3 | +8.7 | 1474.0 | 44.9% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 15-19 | 1474.0 | -10.1 | 1463.9 | 53.1% |
| 18 | Dec 16 2025 | W | Troy | 17-13 | 1464.2 | +4.3 | 1468.5 | 44.5% |